State of The Puck: Gauging the Success of Each Canadian NHL Team in 2026
Written by Matthew Lloyd
Thumbnail and Banner Photo by Klim Musalimov on Unsplash
The good ol’ hockey game has always called the Great White North home, yet as most Canadians know, we haven’t quite reached the glory of Lord Stanley since 1993. Sure, clear arguments about the makeup of the rosters that have secured the cup ring true (50% of all players in the 2025 Cup Final were Canadian), but the goal remains the same for all seven Canadian franchises. What teams have the best chance at the cup this year? What teams look promising even with troubling results this year? And what excuse does Toronto have this time around? We’ll take a look at what each team has to offer, deliver some constructive criticism, and tell you which team to hop on the bandwagon for, as this year’s playoffs are already well underway.
The Vancouver Canucks: Bottom Dwellers Clearly Building to the Future
Strengths: Impressive ability to tear down the roster and secure future assets while maximizing tanking performance.
Weaknesses: D) All of the above. Canucks gave up 316 goals in the regular season, sporting a goal differential of -100 on the season!
Point of Emphasis: The core has been shipped out of town, and the rebuild is in full swing. Can some favorable lottery balls secure their future?
Breakdown: The 2025-26 Season for the Vancouver Canucks is one that most fans would want to forget. After shipping out the captain and former Defenseman of the Year Quinn Hughes in what many called the biggest trade of the year, the team cemented its spot as the worst team in the league. With official basement dweller status, the Canucks secured just 25 wins on the season, good enough for 58 points, a full 14 points below the 2nd-worst club, the Chicago Blackhawks. Canuck fans alike are now dreaming of the Draft Lottery, with potential superstar Gavin McKenna being the top prize in the 2026 NHL Draft. There’s nowhere to go but up from here, but Canuck fans may need to be patient as a new core is built in British Columbia.
The Calgary Flames: The Endless Treadmill of Mediocrity, But Worse This Year!
Strengths: Saving the fanbase from the false hope of a strong October.
Weaknesses: Putting the puck in the net was a mystery all season, as the Flames finished 32nd of 32 teams in goals scored.
Point of Emphasis: Usually, the Flames wait until February or March to break your heart. This year, they were courteous enough to get it completely out of the way before Halloween.
Breakdown: Instead of their patented routine where they tease a playoff spot before a late-season collapse, the Flames flipped the script this year by just collapsing immediately. In a twisted way, it was almost a refreshing change of pace for a fanbase used to prolonged agony. Finishing near the bottom of the Pacific Division with 77 points, their abysmal start meant they were playing from behind all year. This year's agony came in the form of some inopportune wins at the end of the season, vaulting the Flames from 2nd-best lottery odds on March 21st to 4th-best odds by the time the season concluded.
At this point, management can no longer deny that the current core is fundamentally flawed. They aren't just one or two depth pieces away from contending, and the early-season faceplant proved it. The only question heading into the summer is whether the front office finally has the stomach to embrace a full-scale teardown, or if they will just try to patch the glaring leaks and pray that next October goes a little better. I fully expect the latter option to be employed, as it is a time-honored tradition for the Flames to continue running cardio in the middle of the pack.
The Toronto Maple Leafs: Finding New Ways to Disappoint Since 1967
Strengths: Elite offensive talent that continues to sell plenty of jerseys and drive television ratings (but let’s be real, Leafs fans are conditioned to watch any product produced on the ice).
Weaknesses: A shocking 78-point season that firmly proved outscoring your defensive blunders isn't a sustainable 82-game strategy.
Point of Emphasis: Maybe harassing one of your star players to the point you run them out of town isn’t a great strategy for success?
Breakdown: Finishing dead last in the Atlantic Division with only 32 wins can be counted as an unmitigated disaster for a team that headed into the season once again with foolish dreams of the Cup. Ending up just one place higher than the Calgary Flames in the late-season tank-off in the standings, the Leafs are in danger of both a lost season and losing their draft pick. Boston retains the right to the Leafs’ first-round selection should it fall outside of the top 5, with a 58.2% chance of the pick landing at #6 or #7. With an offensive core widely known for its massive price tag and its captain, Auston Matthews, openly non-committal on his future with the franchise after the completion of his current contract, many question marks remain around the team that surrendered the 2nd most goals-against in the 2025-26 season. Is it time to blow the core up before it leaves for nothing in Free Agency? This off-season and draft lottery will determine the Leafs' fate for years to come, with no obvious path forward.
The Winnipeg Jets: Crashing Down To Earth
Strengths: A solid home-ice advantage when the Manitoba winter weather makes visiting teams want to forfeit before puck drop.
Weaknesses: Losing star Nikolaj Ehlers in Free Agency hurt more than expected. From the best record in league and a potent offense last year, down to 26th in goals and overall standings this year, the Jets took a major fall from grace.
Point of Emphasis: Years of finishing near the top of the league and some promising runs in the playoffs have left the Jets with a bare stockpile of youth and draft capital. Can the Jets retool, or is this the painful beginning of the rebuild?
Breakdown: The veterans are a year older, the heavy miles are showing, and the on-ice product has devolved into a painfully average brand of hockey, resulting in a negative goal differential (-29) and zero postseason revenue. A perfect storm of injuries, aging, and puck luck brought the Jets from the best record in the league last year to comfortably outside of the playoffs in a year that allowed the 20th-best team in the league (LA Kings) to make the playoffs in a weak Western Conference.
The most terrifying part of the Jets' current reality isn't the standings—it's the asset management. Because Winnipeg notoriously struggles to attract high-end free agents or get stars to agree to trades, they are forced to rely too heavily on drafting and developing. Yet, this required ethos has run counter to the front office's roster moves in recent years, as win-now moves have left the Jets with the 20th-best prospect pool in the league, furthering their future troubles. While still employing arguably the best goaltender in the league, Conner Hellebuyck, his concerns about the franchise's future have raised alarm bells about his willingness to stick around for a potential rebuild. The Jets face an uncertain future, and while they do retain many of their future draft picks, previous trades will continue to haunt and guide decisions over the coming months.
Now, we’ll be moving onto the teams that still stand a chance at securing Canada’s first Cup since 1993, starting with the team that fell just short in the last 2 finals against the Florida Panthers, the Edmonton Oilers.
The Edmonton Oilers: The High-Octane Ferrari With Reliability Concerns
Strengths: Unmatched star power that can single-handedly propel Edmonton back to the Stanley Cup Finals like the previous 2 years.
Weaknesses: Depth that while improved from previous years, still occasionally makes you wonder if the bottom six actually know they're playing in the NHL, and an even bigger question mark in goal than in previous years.
Point of Emphasis: They remain the hockey equivalent of putting a Formula 1 engine into a minivan, yet it’s still somehow brought them straight to the postseason. Can the top-tier talent carry the entire payload for 16 grueling playoff wins?
Breakdown: Finishing second in the Pacific with 93 points, the Oilers are exactly who we thought they were, albeit a bit more muted than years past. They are an absolute offensive juggernaut (282 goals for) that will live and die by the grace of their superstars. When their top guys are buzzing, they look like undisputed Cup contenders capable of tilting the ice against any opponent in the league. However, the drop-off when the top six head to the bench remains a glaring vulnerability, as does the goaltending situation, which the front office tried to remedy with a widely panned trade for Tristan Jarry that likely made the situation worse. They have enough firepower to mask their defensive lapses on most nights in the regular season, but the playoffs are a notoriously different beast where matchups are exploited ruthlessly.
The pressure in Edmonton is immense, as McDavid’s short 2-year “show me” contract begins this off-season, widely seen as the last chance the all-time great is giving the squad to finally secure the Cup for themselves with him on the payroll. Anything short of a commanding playoff run will be viewed as a massive missed opportunity for a franchise that boasts this much elite talent, especially through the much-maligned Pacific Division, which has been historically weak this season. Despite two Canadian teams finishing higher in the standings than Edmonton, they represent the best shot at claiming the Stanley Cup for Canada, as their path towards glory has less resistance, alongside their recent trips to the finals in the last two seasons.
The Ottawa Senators: The Process Finally Paid Off
Strengths: A massive 99-point season fueled by a fast, dynamic young core that has finally figured out how to win consistently together.
Weaknesses: Lack of post-season experience and a tough path to Lord Stanley. The bright lights of the playoffs might lead to some costly penalties or mental mistakes against battle-tested veterans who know how to grind out a seven-game series.
Point of Emphasis: The Sens look set for years of future contention, but could play an upset role against the favored Carolina Hurricanes and plot a shock path to the Cup Final.
Breakdown: After years of telling the fanbase to "trust the process" through endless rebuilds and agonizing growing pains, the Sens are finally a legitimate, terrifying threat in the East. They’ve proven they can hang with the heavyweights this year, putting up an impressive 278 goals while offering a much more compelling roster than a typical wildcard entry. Unlike the heavy favorites burdened by immense pressure and expectations, Ottawa can play loose, fast, and aggressive hockey, as many didn’t expect this to be the year they finally returned to the playoffs.
However, regular-season success is just the first step. The playoffs require an entirely different level of physical and mental resilience. The Senators will need to prove they can handle the tighter checking, the intense media scrutiny, and the emotional roller coaster of sudden-death hockey. If budding star-goaltender Linus Ullmark can hold up and the young roster doesn't get overwhelmed by the moment, they are the perfect candidate to absolutely ruin Carolina’s Cup dreams. Win or lose, this season is a monumental stepping stone for a franchise that has finally emerged from the dark ages.
The Montreal Canadiens: A Rebuild Done Right – With Success on the Horizon
Strengths: A brilliant 106-point campaign driven by a well-balanced roster, tremendous coaching, and this year’s runner-up for most goals, Cole Caufield, has put the Canadians into a heavyweight matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning. A winning roster, with youth on their side, coupled with an impressive 9th-best ranking in prospects not yet in the league, is a recipe for long-term success.
Weaknesses: Relative lack of playoff experience, and the gauntlet that is the Atlantic Division. Montreal’s path to success is paved with seasoned heavyweights with mountains of playoff experience. Can youthful talent and speed make up for the experience gap?
Point of Emphasis: With 3 of the best 6 records in the league residing in the Atlantic Division, many pundits have pegged whoever emerges from Montreal, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay as the favorites from the Eastern Conference to make the Cup Final. Will Montreal be the team to do it?
The Habs are officially the crown jewel of Canadian hockey right now. Finishing third in a brutally stacked Atlantic division with 48 wins is no small feat, and it signals that the rebuild is entirely in the rearview mirror. Unlike teams that rely purely on individual star power or trap defense, Montreal has found a winning formula built on depth, relentless forechecking, and timely saves. For a fanbase that is used to sky-high expectations, the energy in the Bell Centre is going to be deafening this spring, and finally, the optimism is entirely justified by the on-ice product for the first time since the grueling cup run in 2020.
The ultimate test, however, lies in the NHL's playoff formatting. To make a deep run, they will likely have to go through perennial powerhouses like Tampa Bay, Florida, or Boston just to get out of their own division. There is also the resurgent Buffalo Sabers, who won the division and qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2011 with lofty goals themselves. It will require every ounce of their newfound depth and discipline to reach the Conference Finals, let alone win the Cup. The Canadiens have the structure to make a genuine push for the Cup, but they will need their special teams to deliver when the margins get razor-thin. If they can navigate the minefield of the Atlantic Division, Montreal has a very real chance to end Canada's agonizing Stanley Cup drought.
Is it Finally The Year?
While this year's cup favorites hail from outside Canada, with the Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes the preferred choices by Vegas Sportsbooks, the Oilers' previous success still gives them the 4th-best odds of securing the Stanley Cup. Third time's the charm, I suppose? Should Montreal or Ottawa fight their way to the Eastern Conference Final, there is a very real shot at an all-Canadian Cup Final, but I’m not one to count my chickens before they hatch. Overall, I unfortunately do not believe that this will be the year to break the curse on Canadian teams winning the cup, but I believe Montreal and Ottawa are just getting started with their current cores. Should their momentum continue, you may be looking at a Canadian Cup winner before the end of the 2020s.